Articles

A new look at the new tools of the world of decision-making using modeling, artificial intelligence and machine learning

"The best way to predict the future is to know it."

(modeling and simulating the effects of laws, economic fluctuations and political events on governments in the real world)

Summary: It is essential for managers to make decisions for the optimal use of financial resources, human resources, equipment and other organizational resources. Therefore, managers are always trying to make the most of their facilities and resources to achieve predetermined goals. On the other hand, the presence of a large number of direct and indirect parameters and factors outside the system such as economic conditions, mandatory laws, political events, etc. affect the performance of governments and financial institutions and banks and challenge managers in making the necessary decisions.

The tool named SBMS-GE (Simulation Business Modeling Systems-Governmental Edition), which is designed for modeling and simulation of political, social and economic processes and systems in the context of dynamic analysis, can be an effective and powerful modeling technique. Complex social, industrial, economic, etc. systems should be available to today's officials.

This product can help managers to predict, compare and optimize the results of their performance and decision-making process by intelligent modeling and simulation of real system performance, even with incomplete input data, without changing the cost and risk. Undergo current processes and new implementations. In fact, this system is a combination of techniques that allow the representation of the impact of processes, resources, goods, services, new laws, effective parameters, political conditions, etc. in a dynamic model. By means of this efficient tool, while reducing the risk of the decision-making process by using the evaluation and analysis of different strategies, it is possible to carry out the necessary statistical checks in all its dimensions with the aim of reducing costs and increasing profits or efficiency.

The purpose of using SBMS is as an analysis tool to predict the impact of changes to existing systems and design to predict new system performance. SBMS is to show the change in how the work methods and the methods of using the resources can have a great impact on the final added value. Also, SBMS is one of the tools that was created for a deeper understanding of the current situation and identifying the bottlenecks of financial, industrial and economic systems, and it is one of the most valuable and useful tools for analyzing the performance of complex financial systems processes. As a result, a wide range of dynamic issues can be analyzed in the areas of implementing new methods, providing new services, changing conditions and policies.

The most important applications of this system are when the conditions imposed by the problem limit the possibility of using other ways to solve that problem. These conditions include: when algebraic analysis is not possible, such as: non-deterministic systems, dynamic systems, complex systems, macro financial systems, real-world testing is not possible, the system has not yet been created, there are high and dangerous risks, the cost of testing is high, tests on the real system may disrupt the organization's operations, the results may be affected by the Hawthorne effect, and testing in the real world may not allow exploring many options; Therefore, the advantages of this system are used in dealing with the business environment, and after building each model, it can be used many times with different parameters to analyze the proposed designs.

The SBMS system and its techniques and modules that are used to evaluate the systems provide a very suitable tool for improving the quality of the scale and criteria used in the process of designing, coding and testing the steps of the organization, which can be applied in real conditions. As a result, the possibility of defects in the products and services provided to the customer is reduced, the needs and demands of the customers are met, and the organization achieves success in its mission.

On the other hand, by using the SBMS system, it is possible to predict costs and set priorities. classified the products and services, identified the required workforce, and in fact, using the data obtained from the application of the SBMS system, the management plans and makes decisions more confidently about the cost, budget, human resources, etc.

"Changes in any system can first be modeled and simulated to predict their effect on system performance"

SBMS is a tool to know the results of proposed ideas before their implementation.

The titles of some of the capabilities of SBMS in social, political, strategic and economic fields Community services

- Modeling and investigating the factors affecting the loyalty and decisions of people in society and increasing their loyalty

- Data mining to discover the rating model and behavioral analysis of people using decision tree techniques, Delphi method, neural networks, ant colony and genetic algorithm to validate views in the decision support system.

- Prioritizing factors influencing people's decisions using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP)

- Technologies and models for measuring service quality and managing relationships with people and creating value based on their future needs and expectations.

Services related to different groups of society and social responsibility

- Conceptual examination of mandatory use of government services, the special value of humanitarian action as a new way of attracting positive feedback from the society

- Investigating the effect of government service acceptance factors on word-of-mouth advertising and the use of viral marketing in introducing services

- Investigating the multilateral monopoly market using game theory and data mining process (intelligent business tool)

- Autopsy of appropriate psychological operation techniques and symbolic slogans in different systems with a view to trust modeling

- Modeling and checking operational indicators in controlling the correctness of information with SBMS FUZZY and TOPSIS techniques

- Models and techniques for planning and implementing infrastructure development strategies, making legal decisions, identifying fraud and developing response systems to citizens and formulating the necessary strategies with a view to the future

Services related to strategic planning of departments and organizations

- Reducing administrative bureaucracies and developing the achievements of departments using the approach of fuzzy logic and neural networks

- Investigating the monetary and economic geographic capacities and potentials to identify opportunities to increase the share of international markets

- Modeling strategies, processes and mechanisms to create and maintain sustainable competitive advantage and empowering departments, institutions and organizations

- Preparing for the establishment of digital signature (preparation of the master plan, financial estimates, setting up the RFP and choosing the right contractor)

- Modeling the ranking of departments, managers and employees based on different methods (Malm, Hughes, etc.)

- Modeling the possibility of using new financing tools and equipping resources such as Sukuk tokenization, rental bonds, etc.

- Designing a comprehensive productivity measurement system, modeling productivity measurement and providing solutions for its improvement

Risk and capital related services

- Presenting the electronic supply chain management model at the government scale along with the supply and demand balance tool

- Modeling the risk situation in different conditions along with providing the credit risk assessment model

- Determining the structure of optimal government investments with the approach of game theory

- Application of data mining in risk management of investment operations

- Presentation of liquidity risk and credit risk management model and its implementation in departments and organizations

- Designing a risk management system in industrial investment projects and modeling the effect of parallel markets in the capital market and industry

- Risk modeling of venture capital to identify new opportunities

- Scientific investigation of governments entering the fields of industrial investment and non-financial services and privatization of activities

- Creating a comprehensive economic and technical database of projects in different economic sectors and studying and implementing integrated risk management (ERM)